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Question: Discuss about the Business and the Supply of the Production of the Paper. Answer: Introduction The business and the supply of the production of the paper business was put under the state of compromise with the availability and improvement of the digital technologies. The paper industry has been inclined towards the news reading via the platforms of the social media. The crowd also invests time in the real time news and platforms of the video sharing. The challenges of the new and modern day approach had been perceived by the paper industry and thus changed the operations of the business. The major objective of the companies was the engagement of the customers of both corporate and individuals. The enagagement was to create a tactical association for the assurance of the maintainance in the purchase of the products. The companies lack in generating the knowledge and understanding the views of the current consumers of the goods and services. There must be a significant point that must be noted by the company and it include the particular weaknesses and the strengths that may lead to an effect on the levels of sales for the papers. Due to the above factors, the rate of the magazine and newspapers had declined and thus the customers are having a tough time in purchasing the products. A subsidiary company named Auspaper had projected that the sales would drop with the decline in the demands for the magazines and newspapers. The company in order yo increase the lowering of the sales will have to create enhanced associations and links with the customers. Asupaper had approached a company for carrying out the market research to analysis and lend a hand for the creation of improved knowledge about the customers nature. The likelihood could be predicted by the creation of a tactical or strategic alliance. Thus, by keeping the same in mind, this paper has made a focus or stress on the developing models on the satisfaction of the customers and the likelihood of the creation of an alliance by the customers. The discussions will include the data collected and the developed models. Further, the process of the built up of the models and likelihood of the strategic alliance with Auspaper has been discussed in the paper. Descriptive Statistics The views of the customers on the services and products that formed the part of the information was rated on a scale from 0 i.e. the lowest to 10 i.e. the highest. The data take into account the time of the purchases, industry category i.e. either magazine and the newspaper and the employment provided by the firm. Further, the location of the customers i.e. New Zealand and Australia was taken into concern that has an effect on the levels of satisfaction. There was an extraction of the mode of the distribution of the products and the qualities perceived. On the scale, the average was 7.894 on the opinion of the product quality. It indicated that the company had been maximising its abilities in the production of the products with quality towards their consumers. There was an indication of the satisfaction of the cutomers by the skewness of the data towards the right. The average score of the company in resolving the complaints was 5.36. The median is equal to the mean and the same represent that the data for the resolution of the complaints were distributed normally. Additionally, the other factors being averagely rated comprises of the product line, salesforce image, internal support and the extention of the development and sale of the latest products. The levels of the satisfaction and pricing had an above average rating as they were 6.9 out of 10. The main areas that the company need to focus consisted of the efficient handling of the bills and orders, speed of delivery, flexibility in prices and the campaigns related to advertisements. Further, the improvement in the services of the customers must be under total focus to enhance the probability of the creation of a strategic alliance with the company. On an average the customers were satisfied with the company and its products and services. While 57% of the customers disagreed towards the alliance, the other agreed. There was an equal distribution of the firms that purchased paper from the company Auspaper. The distribution was made between the industries of the newspapers and magazines. There was a lower level of the origination of the cutomers from the countries of New Zealand and Australia that gave a sign of the demand being more than the two countries. In comparison to the direct method, the indirect method was more than about 4%. There was an equal distribution of the c ustomers in three groups i.e. less than a year, between 1 and five and above five years. Identify the significant variables for the model While conducting the multiple regression, there must be a meeting up of the assumptions that are as under: The first assumption is that the variable of response must be drawn from a normal distribution. The supposition is taken under the test by plotting of a histogram that will illustrate the allocation of the information. Subsequent to the plotting, there was a formation of normal distribution. The second hypothesis is there must be a linear relationship with the variable of response in the nonstop predictors. A matrix of correlation was built that illustrated that no more than 6 variables had reasonable association with the responses. There was an indication and sign of a linear association after the plotting of the scattered points with high or moderate correlations. The sis variables took into account the quality of the product, responses to the complaints of the customers, line of product, billing, ordering and the speed in the deliveries. The model will include the above discussed variable that has a major focus on the estimation of the level of the satisfaction of the customers. The industry type did not reflect in a noteworthy difference among the industries as they were equal in state and position. There was a sign of the differences among the groups that included the customers location, type of customers, firm size and the system of the distribution. Further, there will be an inclusion of all the variables in the first model that will be irrelevant and hence removed for the improvement procedures. Constructing the model to forecast satisfaction of the customers First model The set of predictors that were included in the first model for the prediction and estimation of the levels of the customer satisfaction for the products of the Auspaper. The preditors included the quality of the products, levels of the resolution of the complaints of the customers, image of the salesforce, speed of the delivery, type of the customers and the industry, customer location and the style of the billing and the ordering and lastly the system of distribution. The model with the help of the sample data produced an R-squared value of about 84.96% that explained that the variation of the satisfaction levels of the customers is 84.96%. There were factors and variables that stood at a confidence interval of 95% that was insignificant in nature and they included the type of the industry and products, speed of delivery of the goods and services, concern of the complaints of the customers, ordering and billing operations and speed. As a intern of the data analyst, there was a decision of removing the immaterial variables from the model for the development of the level of reliability. The model was presented as below - Interpretation The following were interpreted from the above model: The customers purchasing the products of the first category i.e. between 1 to 5 years were satisfied by 0.665 in comparison to the year old category. The category in which the customers were purchasing for more than 5 years were satisfied by 0.726 in comparison to the year old category. The customers that had been purchasing the magazines had been satisfied by 0.093 in comparison to the Newspapers. The larger firms were seen and believed to have extra satisfaction from the products and services of the Auspaper company in comparison to the small firms. The model also clarified that the customers within the countries of New Zealand and Australia were greatly contented by 0.127. The distribution done in a Direct manner was more effective in making certain that the customers would carry on doing the dealing with the company Auspaper as they had been satisfied by 0.403. The increment in the product quality can improve the satisfaction levels by 0.273 and the customers that had too many complaints were more satisfied by the procedures and there was no much effect on the business of the same. There must be an improvement of the needs of the customers with the improvement in the breadth and the depth of the line of the product. The product line increased the satisfaction level of the customers by 0.122. There was an increase in the improvement of the satisfaction level of the customers by 0.346 with the increase in the opinion of the image of the Salesforce. Further, the improvement in the ordering and the billing improved the level of the customers satisfaction by 0.056 points. Last but not the least, the speed of delivery was positively correlated with the satisfaction of customers as it improved the level of satisfaction by 0.102. Second model The focus and the main concern of the model constituted the forecast of the level of the satifaction of the customers and also had a basis on the removal of the unwanted predictors. The unwanted variables were removed and the remaining set was significant due to the p-values being less than 0.0001. The model was varied and the variables took into account the following: Image of the Salesforce Line of Product System of delivery and distribution Quality of the products Type of customer and the nature and size of the firm Interpretation The following were interpreted from the above model: The customers purchasing the products of the first category i.e. between 1 to 5 years were satisfied by 0.907 in comparison to the year old category. The category in which the customers were purchasing for more than 5 years by Auspaper were satisfied by 0.3 in comparison to the 1 to 5 year category. The increment in the line of products improved the level of the customers satisfaction by 0.237 points. The larger firms were seen and believed to have extra satisfaction from the products and services of the Auspaper company in comparison to the small firms. The distribution done in a Direct manner was more effective in making certain that the customers would carry on doing the dealing with the company Auspaper as they had been satisfied by 0.397. There was a direct relationship of the image of Salesforce with the satisfaction of the customers and the same increased by 0.353 points. The product quality is considered as the most important factor and the level of satisfaction increase by 0.237 points. Interaction effect for product line and location of a customer There were three models towards the plotting for the control and accuracy of the effects and the importance of the variables and their association and interactiveness. They consisted of the following features: The first model showed 78% as R-square and the model consisted of the sole predictor i.e. the line of product that is the most important one in the model. The Second model showed 45.23% as R-square and the model consisted of both the line of products and the location of the customers. Lastly, a model was prepared that included both the above predictors and the interaction among them. The last model showed that the customer location was an interacting variable and the final model was as follows: Interpretation The following were interpreted from the above model: The increment in the line of the products will increase the level of the satisfaction of the customers by 0.31 based in the model of interaction. The customers that did not have an origination from the countries like New Zealand and Australia were unsatisfied by 2.927. The effect of the dealings between the line of the product and location of the customers assisted in the enhancement of the satisfaction of the customers by 0.555. Probability of having alliance for customers with neutral views on Salesforce image and product line Ther model known as the logistic model had been plotted in order to forecast the existence of the tactical alliance on the line of the product and the image of the salesforce. The model had a comparatively low senstivity as it had been around 76.31% compared to 70.9%. The model is as follows: The probability was obtained as 0.2258. Probability for having strategic alliance on different levels of customers' perceptions of product quality and price flexibility Unlike the above logistic model, the quality of products and flexibility in price were used as predictors. The model is as follows: As a result, the probabilities were as below. Price flexibility Product Quality 0 5 10 1 0.0000 0.0007 0.0536 2 0.0000 0.0021 0.1398 3 0.0001 0.0061 0.3182 4 0.0002 0.0173 0.5727 5 0.0007 0.0482 0.7938 6 0.0019 0.1271 0.9171 7 0.0055 0.2948 0.9695 8 0.0156 0.5456 0.9892 9 0.0434 0.7752 0.9962 10 0.1154 0.9083 0.9987 As per the above table, the flexibilty of prices as 0 and 1 did not have a chance of having a strategic alliance. Thus, the probability grew too close to 1. Time series for predicting turnover The three periods including the second, third and the fourth quarter of 2017 were fitted in the time series and a model of linear prediction for the estimation of the periods. The values obtained included 5,701.2, 5,754.1 and 5,807 respectively and were measured in thousands of dollars. The equation used was as below: